It’s two weeks until Election Day, and I’m curious whether statistician Nate Silver will be correct again this year? Silver runs the popular blog www.fivethirtyeight.com and bases his election predictions more on the laws of probability than political analysis.
In the 2008 presidential election, Silver correctly predicted 49 of 50 states and followed that with a perfect 50 of 50 states in 2012. Silver became popular on the political left because in both elections he predicted that President Obama would be the winner and his blog appeared to a wider audience in The New York Times. Ironically, I noticed some recent left wing social media criticism of Silver because of his 2014 predictions.
In 2012, I believed the GOP talking heads that claimed the race between President Obama and Mitt Romney to be closer than the polling indicated and actually thought Romney might win. I was wrong, but Silver was right, and he became known as the most accurate forecaster in the country. Silver’s 2014 analysis is getting a lot of attention because he predicts that Republicans have a 65% chance of taking back the US Senate (LINK: www.fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast). I also expect a GOP Senate win on November 4 based on the current polling, but recognize that a lot can happen in two weeks and believe some races are still too close to call.Jim Maisano Jim@FreeVoter.com