Nate Silver’s Blog’s Final US Senate Predictions

US-CAPITOLAt 12:01 on Election Day morning, Nate Silver and his election prognosticators at the FIVETHIRTYEIGHT Blog posted, “Republicans have a 76.2% chance of winning a majority” of the US Senate (the blog predicted all 50 states correctly in the 2012 presidential election). See link for its 2014 Senate Forecast.

You will notice that 7 races are still close – here are the ones to watch:

  • Kansas – Roberts (R) vs Orman (I) – dead even!
  • North Carolina – Hagan (D) +1% over Tillis (R)
  • Iowa – Ernst (R) +2% over Braley (D)
  • Colorado – Gardner (R) +2% over Udall (D)
  • Alaska – Sullivan (R) +2% over Begich (D)
  • Georgia – Perdue (R) +2% over Nunn (D)
  • New Hampshire – Shaheen (D) +2% over Brown (R)

In both Louisiana and Arkansas the Republican candidates are favored by 5%, so let’s figure they go that way. So it looks like the Republicans go into Election Day leading the Democrats in senate seats 48 to 45. Therefore, Republicans need to win 3 of the 7 swing races to get to 51 and take control of the senate. The Democrats need to win 5 of the 7 swing seats to get to 50 and control the senate because the Vice President breaks tie votes.

I hope this analysis is helpful as you watch the returns when the polls close. Most importantly, PLEASE VOTE!

Jim Maisano